Investors are expecting Donald Trump to back down in the war with Iran – but what if he doesn’t?

Global markets have become inured to the US president’s posturing over the past year, but economists warn they may be ‘a little bit complacent’ in anticipating a short conflict in the Middle East

Investors over the past year have learned that Donald Trump has a boundless capacity to quickly reverse course in the face of acute political or market pressures.

But a week since the United States and Israel launched missile strikes on Iran, there are fears the war could morph into a protracted conflict.

Patrick Commins is Guardian Australia’s economics editor