GDP outperforms forecasts with 3.8% revised growth

(NewsNation) — The nation's real Gross Domestic Product increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

That outperformed predictions of 3.3% made in Q2. The growth also comes after a 0.6% GDP decrease in Q1, revised numbers found. Original estimates placed the first quarter pullback at 0.5%.

BEA points to a decrease in imports and an increase in consumer spending for the estimated GDP growth in April, May and June.

Unemployment claims were also down in the BEA's latest estimates — down 14,000 for a total of 218,000 in the week ending on Sept. 20.

The Q3 GDP will be released on Oct. 30, and some economists, investors and CEOs fear the country's economy may be headed backward in that report because of sustained tariffs from President Donald Trump.

Yale's Budget Lab estimates tariffs will result in a 0.5% decline in U.S. GDP both this year and next. It also forecasts a 0.3% rise in unemployment by the end of the year and a 0.7% rise by the end of 2026.

The predicted economic conditions are making it difficult for businesses to expand. Some companies are halting growth plans, while others are moving forward at great risk.

Northwestern Holdings CEO David Feniger told NewsNation his steel company is still making major capital investments, despite "scary" low demand in the past eight months.

"We had planned this prior to Trump. But we're getting set back because we're getting hurt on all our other business sides with the economy," he said. "So, we're trying to still put all this money into the business while we're not making it."

To invest as planned, Feniger resorted to "pulling out all savings in cash that we have."

"It's putting us in a worse position than we were prior," he said.

Northwestern Holdings is the only manufacturer of U-channel fence posts in the United States. However, it still cannot compete — due to the economic uncertainty gripping households and businesses.